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--- how_to_make_valuable_prediction_markets [2022/12/20 00:57] – [Ideas for classes of valuable prediction market] katjagrace
+++ how_to_make_valuable_prediction_markets [2023/09/29 17:59] (current) – [Ideas for classes of valuable prediction market] katjagrace
@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
   * **Recommendations for important problems** E.g. ‘What intervention will Alice do and consider responsible for causing her to work for >20h in some week?’ or ‘Who will Alice marry? (self-nominations only)’ [to avoid people being involved who don’t consent]
   * **What will happen with EA hubs in the coming years** E.g. ‘Will at least 100 people say they live in Austin in the 2025 EA survey?’
+  * **What will be the outcome of a trial?** RCTs for instance can be expensive and time consuming, so this is good for both getting results earlier, and in cases where the study isn't done. Apparently superforecasters were great at guessing what will happen in trials, in some research.
+===== More places where straightforward forecasts are used in decisionmaking =====
+  * What ads will be clicked?
+  *
+===== Types of uses for prediction market style forecasts =====
+  * Causing visceral updates, e.g. having to put a number on particular AI trait in 2028 makes it feel real in a different way.
+  * Info the
+===== Why are prediction markets not as useful as they seem? =====
+  * Just takes time for new things to be used (Katja doesn't buy that this is much of it)
+  * Questions need to either be formed as decision markets and thus conditional (and those markets are kind of awkward) or they need to be about a factual claim that would imply a decision directly.
+  * Prediction markets don't interface with people's normal decisionmaking
 ===== Ideas for specific valuable markets =====
   * How much will AI Impacts raise?