Katja's Institution Design Wiki

This page is read only. You can view the source, but not change it. Ask your administrator if you think this is wrong.
===== Experiments in making reasoning really explicit and careful =====

Copy-pasted from a doc, not organized:

  * Paul Christiano and Katja’s ‘Structured Case Project’
  * AI Impacts: arose out of relative failure of structured case project. Still involves some attempting at relatively watertight argument e.g. https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/
  * Generally intended as experimental epistemic object: 
  * collection of editable pages
  * Each page is a modular node attempting to answer a question
  * Each page has summary answer at the top, then the page supports that answer
  * Lower level pages answer questions that are helpful for answering questions on higher level pages
  * Turning into a wiki: wiki.aiimpacts.org/
  * Someone made software that did the thing Katja is always asking for, and it somehow didn’t seem great, so that’s evidence against Katja’s intuitions on this
  * Probably this?
  * Attempt to analyze what is actually hard about making structured arguments
  * Katja has done this some, still feels mysterious
  * Improving people’s epistemics
  * Pastcasting - forecasting past results so you get instant feedback
  * https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/pastcasting
  * Calibration - see how justified your own confidence is
  * https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration
  * Open Phil one
  * Critch (I think?) made an app
  * Historical Base rates - much thinking requires knowing roughly how often things have happened in the past
  * Seems like Our World In Data might do some work here
  * There is at least one other effort
  * Increasing summarisation - making it easier to get a basic understanding on EA/LessWrong topics
  * Nonlinear offer a range of prizes for summaries of such works
  * Nathan Young
  * Fighting ‘Moloch’ 
  * What is Moloch exactly?