Katja's Institution Design Wiki

Copy-pasted from a doc, not organized:

• Paul Christiano and Katja’s ‘Structured Case Project’
• AI Impacts: arose out of relative failure of structured case project. Still involves some attempting at relatively watertight argument e.g. https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/
• Generally intended as experimental epistemic object:
• collection of editable pages
• Each page is a modular node attempting to answer a question
• Each page has summary answer at the top, then the page supports that answer
• Lower level pages answer questions that are helpful for answering questions on higher level pages
• Turning into a wiki: wiki.aiimpacts.org/
• Someone made software that did the thing Katja is always asking for, and it somehow didn’t seem great, so that’s evidence against Katja’s intuitions on this
• Probably this?
• Attempt to analyze what is actually hard about making structured arguments
• Katja has done this some, still feels mysterious
• Improving people’s epistemics
• Pastcasting - forecasting past results so you get instant feedback
• https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/pastcasting
• Calibration - see how justified your own confidence is
• https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration
• Open Phil one
• Critch (I think?) made an app
• Historical Base rates - much thinking requires knowing roughly how often things have happened in the past
• Seems like Our World In Data might do some work here
• There is at least one other effort
• Increasing summarisation - making it easier to get a basic understanding on EA/LessWrong topics
• Nonlinear offer a range of prizes for summaries of such works
• Nathan Young
• Fighting ‘Moloch’
• What is Moloch exactly?